The Penn Wharton Budget Model released its latest tariff data on April 15, 2026. The numbers tell a story of a tariff regime in transition: lower than the peak, but still historically extreme.
The Headline Numbers
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Effective tariff rate | 8.9% | Was 1.5% pre-2025; peaked at 16.5% |
| China effective rate | 31.6% | Highest of any major partner |
| Steel & aluminum | 40.1% | Rising to 50% in June |
| New tariff revenue | $224.8B | Jan 2025 โ Feb 2026 |
| USMCA exemption share | 86.3% | Canada/Mexico rates below 5% |
What 8.9% Means for You
For every $100 of imported goods, $8.90 goes to tariffs. Yale Budget Lab estimates this implies a 1.1% increase in consumer prices. For the median household, that's ~$790/year in direct tariff costs, or $3,800-$4,900 counting indirect effects.
China: The Permanent Wall
China's 31.6% effective rate persists due to stacked Section 301 (7.5-25%), Section 232 (25-50%), and Section 122 (10-15%). Some Chinese steel products face duties exceeding 250%. Chinese import share has fallen from 21.6% to ~10.8%, though much trade reroutes through Vietnam and Mexico.
The USMCA Bright Spot
USMCA exemption usage surged to 86.3%, keeping Canada/Mexico effective rates under 5% โ validating the trade agreement framework.
Forward Projections
Penn Wharton's scenarios: current policy yields ~8.1% ETR; Section 122 expiry drops to ~5.5%; full reversion to pre-2025 returns to ~2.5%. Lifetime cost to middle-income households: $22,000.
Key Takeaways
- โ 8.9% effective rate โ highest since early 1970s
- โ China at 31.6% โ a permanent wall of stacked tariffs
- โ $224.8 billion collected from American importers in 13 months
- โ USMCA working: 86.3% exemption usage
- โ Lifetime cost to middle-income households: $22,000
- โ Steel/aluminum rising to 50% in June 2026