The Tariff Scoreboard: Who's Winning and Who's Losing

Every tariff creates winners and losers. The administration claims tariffs protect American industry and create jobs. Critics say they destroy more than they create. Who's right? The answer, as with most economic questions, depends on which industries you look at and what you measure. Here's the data — industry by industry, with real employment numbers, revenue figures, and market outcomes.

The Scoreboard

The Winners

🟢 Steel Production: The Poster Child

US steel producers are the clearest winners. The 25% Section 232 tariff on all imported steel (with no exemptions since March 2025) has raised domestic steel prices by approximately 40% above world market prices. US Steel, Nucor, Cleveland-Cliffs, and Steel Dynamics have all reported record or near-record profits.

• Employment: US steel production employment increased from 80,700 (March 2025) to 84,900 (February 2026) — a gain of 4,200 jobs
• Revenue: US steel industry revenue increased approximately $6.2 billion year-over-year
• Capacity utilization: Rose from 72% to 79%, the highest since 2014
• Stock performance: Steel stocks up 35-65% since April 2025

However, the cost per job created tells a different story. The tariff costs downstream industries roughly $18.4 billion in higher input costs. Dividing the total downstream cost by the 4,200 new steel jobs yields a cost of approximately $4.4 million per job created. The average steel worker earns about $65,000.

"We're grateful for the protection. Demand is up, we're hiring, and our plants are running near capacity. For us, the tariffs are working."
— Lourenco Goncalves, CEO, Cleveland-Cliffs, Q4 2025 Earnings Call

🟢 Aluminum Production

Similar story to steel but smaller scale. The 25% aluminum tariff has increased domestic production by 8% and added about 1,800 jobs. Century Aluminum reopened a smelter in Kentucky. But aluminum-using industries (beverage cans, auto parts, aerospace, construction) face $5.2 billion in higher costs.

🟡 Domestic Appliances: Mixed

Whirlpool successfully lobbied for washing machine tariffs starting in 2018 and has benefited from broader tariffs on Chinese and Korean appliances. The company has added about 3,400 US jobs. However, Whirlpool also raised prices 12-20% — and total washing machine sales volume dropped 15%. Consumers are paying more and buying less.

The Losers

🔴 Steel-Using Manufacturing: 18x More Jobs Lost Than Created

For every steel production job, there are approximately 18 jobs in steel-using industries: auto manufacturing, construction, machinery, appliances, canned goods, and more. These downstream industries employ about 6.5 million Americans. And they are being hammered by higher input costs.

The Trade Partnership Worldwide estimates that steel and aluminum tariffs have caused a net loss of approximately 75,000 manufacturing jobs in steel-using industries — roughly 18 times the 4,200 jobs created in steel production. Companies cite higher raw material costs eating into margins and making US-manufactured products less competitive globally.

🔴 Auto Industry: $24.6 Billion Hit

The auto industry is the single largest loser. The 25% Section 232 tariff on imported vehicles and the 25% tariff on auto parts have:

• Increased the average new car price by $4,200-$7,900 depending on model and origin
• Reduced new vehicle sales by 1.2 million units annually
• Cost an estimated 32,000 auto industry jobs (production, supply chain, dealerships combined)
• Forced multiple plant closures (Stellantis Belvidere, Ford Ohio Assembly)

Even "American-made" vehicles contain 25-50% imported parts. A Ford F-150 assembled in Dearborn uses transmissions, electronics, and components from Mexico, Canada, Japan, and China — all now tariffed.

🔴 Agriculture: Retaliation's Biggest Victim

American farmers are paying for tariffs twice: once through higher input costs (equipment, chemicals, fertilizer) and again through retaliatory tariffs from trading partners. China's retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural exports remain in effect. Canada, the EU, and others have imposed their own retaliation:

Farm bankruptcies are up 23% year-over-year. The administration has provided $12 billion in emergency farm subsidies (Market Facilitation Program 2.0), but farmers say it doesn't cover their losses, and it comes from taxpayer money — making it a double cost.

🔴 Retail: 89,000 Jobs Lost

The retail sector is the economy's largest private employer, with 15.6 million workers. Tariffs have hit retailers through higher wholesale costs on imported merchandise. The National Retail Federation estimates that tariffs have increased the average retailer's cost of goods by 12-18%.

Small retailers, unable to absorb costs, are closing at record rates. Large retailers have cut staff and hours. The sector has shed approximately 89,000 jobs since April 2025 — a combination of store closures, reduced hours, and hiring freezes.

🔴 Solar Energy: A Green Casualty

Solar panel installations have declined 22% since tariffs took effect. The 54% tariff on Chinese solar cells and panels (previously covered by a separate Section 201 safeguard at lower rates) has increased the cost of residential solar installation by $5,000-$8,000 per system. The Solar Energy Industries Association estimates 18,000 jobs lost in installation, sales, and manufacturing.

The Corporate Scoreboard

The Bottom Line

The pattern is unmistakable: tariffs create concentrated benefits for a small number of protected industries (steel, aluminum, some appliances) and dispersed costs across the entire economy. The benefits are visible, measurable, and politically useful — the CEO of a steel company can point to new hires and ribbon-cuttings. The costs are diffuse: slightly higher prices for millions of products, slower job growth across dozens of industries, fewer exports from farms.

"The seen benefits of tariffs will always be paraded before Congress and the public. The unseen costs — the jobs not created, the businesses not started, the exports not sold — are invisible but vastly larger."
— Adapted from Frédéric Bastiat, "That Which Is Seen, and That Which Is Not Seen" (1850)

By every comprehensive measure — net jobs, net GDP, consumer welfare, trade balance — tariffs are costing America far more than they're returning. The scoreboard isn't close.