US-China Trade War 2026: Where Things Stand

The US-China trade conflict — now in its eighth year — has been through more twists than a spy novel. From the original Section 301 tariffs to 145% peak rates, a Geneva truce, a Supreme Court intervention, and new proposed duties, here's the full picture.

Last updated: July 10, 2026

Years of Conflict

⏱️

Since 2018 Section 301

Peak Tariff Rate

📈

145%

April 2025 (now voided)

Current Typical Rate

🇨🇳

17.5–35%

Section 122 + Section 301

Trade Deficit Change

📉

-54%

$420B → $194B (2018–2025)

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The paradox:Despite $370B+ in Chinese goods facing tariffs since 2018, China remained America's third-largest trading partner in 2025. The trade deficit with China fell 54%, but the overall US trade deficit barely changed — imports shifted to Vietnam, Mexico, India, and other countries, often for goods that still contain Chinese components.

Current Tariff Rates on Chinese Goods

Chinese imports face the most complex tariff structure of any US trading partner. Multiple layers stack on top of each other depending on the product.

Tariff Layer	Rate	Notes
Section 122 baseline	10%	Expires July 24, 2026
Section 301 — Lists 1-3	25%	$250B in goods
Section 301 — List 4A	7.5%	$120B in goods
Section 301 — EVs	100%	Chinese electric vehicles
Section 301 — Batteries	25–50%	EV and non-EV batteries
Section 301 — Solar cells	50%	Solar cells and modules
Section 301 — Semiconductors	50%	Legacy chips
Section 301 — Steel/Aluminum	25%	On top of Section 232
Section 232 (if applicable)	25–50%	Steel, aluminum, copper articles
Proposed: Forced labor 301	+12.5%	Not yet in effect — hearings July 2026

Complete Timeline: 2018–2026

2018–2019

Section 301 tariffs imposed in four tranches covering $370B in Chinese goods (Lists 1-4). China retaliates on $110B in US goods.

Jan 2020

Phase One deal signed: China commits to $200B in additional US purchases. Falls far short — only 58% fulfilled by end of 2021.

2021–2024

Biden retains all Trump-era tariffs. Adds new Section 301 duties on EVs (100%), batteries (25%), solar cells (50%), and semiconductors.

Feb 4, 2025

Trump 2.0: 10% IEEPA fentanyl tariff on all Chinese goods.

Mar 4, 2025

China fentanyl tariff doubled to 20%. China retaliates with 10% on US sorghum, soybeans, pork, and dairy.

Apr 2, 2025

Liberation Day: 34% reciprocal tariff on China announced (on top of existing duties).

Apr 8–9, 2025

Rapid escalation: US raises China tariffs to 125%, then 145%. China matches at 125% on US goods.

May 12, 2025

Geneva Agreement: Both sides suspend 24pp of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, retaining 10% on covered goods.

Aug 11, 2025

Geneva truce extended through November. US tariffs on China stabilize at ~30% (reciprocal portion).

Nov 2025

Stockholm meeting: Further extension agreed. Fentanyl cooperation framework announced.

Feb 20, 2026

SCOTUS strikes down IEEPA tariffs. Reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs voided. Section 301 tariffs remain.

Mar 2026

Section 122 replaces IEEPA: 10% baseline applies to Chinese goods alongside existing Section 301 duties.

Jun 2026

USTR proposes new Section 301 tariffs of 12.5% on China citing forced labor enforcement failures.

US-China Trade by the Numbers

Bilateral trade data tells part of the story. The deficit has fallen, but so has total trade volume — both exports and imports declined.

Year	US Exports to China	US Imports from China	Bilateral Deficit
2017	$130B	$506B	-$376B
2018	$120B	$540B	-$420B
2019	$107B	$452B	-$345B
2020	$125B	$435B	-$310B
2021	$151B	$506B	-$355B
2022	$154B	$537B	-$383B
2023	$148B	$427B	-$279B
2024	$143B	$401B	-$258B
2025*	$118B	$312B	-$194B

* 2025 figures are annualized estimates based on Jan–Oct data. Source: US Census Bureau.

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Trade diversion in action:As US imports from China fell, imports from Vietnam rose 38%, from Mexico 15%, and from India 22% between 2018 and 2025. Analysis by the Peterson Institute found that roughly 30-40% of this represents Chinese goods being routed through third countries with minimal processing — sometimes called "tariff engineering."

How China Has Fought Back

China's retaliation has gone beyond tariffs into strategic economic tools:

🌾 Agricultural tariffs: 10–125% on US soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, and dairy — targeting politically sensitive farm states
⛏️ Rare earth export controls: Restrictions on gallium, germanium, antimony, and other minerals critical to US defense and tech industries
🏭 Entity blacklists: US defense contractors and tech firms barred from Chinese markets
💰 Currency management: Allowing the yuan to weaken, partially offsetting tariff costs for Chinese exporters
🤝 Alternative trade partnerships: Accelerating RCEP implementation and bilateral deals with EU, ASEAN, and Middle Eastern countries

How the Supreme Court Reshaped the Trade War

The February 2026 SCOTUS ruling in Learning Resources v. Trump voided IEEPA-based tariffs — including the fentanyl tariffs specifically targeting China and the reciprocal tariffs that peaked at 145%. But it left Section 301 tariffs untouched, since those were imposed under different legal authority with proper administrative proceedings.

The practical effect: China's tariff rates dropped from an effective ~55-70% (combining IEEPA + Section 301) to roughly 17.5-35% (Section 122 + Section 301). Still historically high, but a meaningful reduction from the peak.

The administration has signaled it intends to maintain pressure through new Section 301 investigations. USTR proposed 12.5% forced-labor tariffs in June 2026 covering Chinese goods — hearings are scheduled for July 2026.

What Comes Next

📅 July 7–11, 2026: USTR hearings on proposed Section 301 forced-labor tariffs
📅 July 24, 2026: Section 122 baseline tariff expires without Congressional action
⚖️ Pending: Appeals court review of Section 122 legality
🏛️ Congress: Debate over new tariff authority legislation
🌐 WTO: Appellate Body remains nonfunctional; trade disputes lack resolution mechanism

🇨🇳 China Country Profile

Detailed tariff rates and trade data for China.

🔄 Retaliation Tracker

How China and other nations have responded.

📜 Section 301 Deep Dive

The legal foundation of China tariffs.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the total tariff rate on Chinese goods in 2026?

It depends on the product. Most Chinese goods face at minimum 17.5% (10% Section 122 + 7.5% Section 301 List 4A). Many face 35% (10% + 25% Section 301 Lists 1-3). Targeted sectors face much more: Chinese EVs face over 100% in combined duties, solar cells face 60%+, and steel articles can face 85%+ when Section 232 duties are added.

Did the Geneva Agreement reduce tariffs on China?

Temporarily, yes. The May 2025 Geneva Agreement suspended 24 percentage points of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. But after the SCOTUS ruling voided IEEPA tariffs entirely in February 2026, the Geneva framework became moot. Current China tariffs rest on Section 301 and Section 122 authority instead.

Has the trade war reduced the US-China trade deficit?

Yes, significantly. The bilateral trade deficit fell from $420B in 2018 to an estimated $194B in 2025 — a 54% decline. However, economists note that much of the 'reduction' reflects trade diversion: Chinese goods now enter the US through third countries like Vietnam, Mexico, and Malaysia, so the real deficit reduction is smaller than the bilateral numbers suggest.

How has China retaliated?

China has imposed tariffs of 10-125% on US agricultural products (soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, dairy), restricted exports of rare earth minerals and critical materials, blacklisted US defense companies, and imposed export controls on gallium, germanium, and other tech-critical minerals.

What happens next in the US-China trade relationship?

Several developments are in play: USTR has proposed new Section 301 tariffs of 12.5% citing forced labor issues (hearings in July 2026), the Section 122 baseline tariff expires July 24, and Congress is debating whether to grant new tariff authority. The trajectory suggests tariffs on Chinese goods will remain elevated regardless of which specific legal authority is used.

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