The US-China trade conflict โ now in its eighth year โ has been through more twists than a spy novel. From the original Section 301 tariffs to 145% peak rates, a Geneva truce, a Supreme Court intervention, and new proposed duties, here's the full picture.
Last updated: September 26, 2026
Years of Conflict
โฑ๏ธ
8+
Since 2018 Section 301
Peak Tariff Rate
๐
145%
April 2025 (now voided)
Current Typical Rate
๐จ๐ณ
17.5โ35%
Section 122 + Section 301
Trade Deficit Change
๐
-54%
$420B โ $194B (2018โ2025)
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The paradox:Despite $370B+ in Chinese goods facing tariffs since 2018, China remained America's third-largest trading partner in 2025. The trade deficit with China fell 54%, but the overall US trade deficit barely changed โ imports shifted to Vietnam, Mexico, India, and other countries, often for goods that still contain Chinese components.
Current Tariff Rates on Chinese Goods
Chinese imports face the most complex tariff structure of any US trading partner. Multiple layers stack on top of each other depending on the product.
Tariff Layer
Rate
Notes
Section 122 baseline
10%
Expires July 24, 2026
Section 301 โ Lists 1-3
25%
$250B in goods
Section 301 โ List 4A
7.5%
$120B in goods
Section 301 โ EVs
100%
Chinese electric vehicles
Section 301 โ Batteries
25โ50%
EV and non-EV batteries
Section 301 โ Solar cells
50%
Solar cells and modules
Section 301 โ Semiconductors
50%
Legacy chips
Section 301 โ Steel/Aluminum
25%
On top of Section 232
Section 232 (if applicable)
25โ50%
Steel, aluminum, copper articles
Section 301 โ Forced Labor
10โ12.5%
In effect since July 24, 2026
Section 232 โ Drones
25โ100%
In effect since September 2, 2026
Complete Timeline: 2018โ2026
2018โ2019
Section 301 tariffs imposed in four tranches covering $370B in Chinese goods (Lists 1-4). China retaliates on $110B in US goods.
Jan 2020
Phase One deal signed: China commits to $200B in additional US purchases. Falls far short โ only 58% fulfilled by end of 2021.
2021โ2024
Biden retains all Trump-era tariffs. Adds new Section 301 duties on EVs (100%), batteries (25%), solar cells (50%), and semiconductors.
Feb 4, 2025
Trump 2.0: 10% IEEPA fentanyl tariff on all Chinese goods.
Mar 4, 2025
China fentanyl tariff doubled to 20%. China retaliates with 10% on US sorghum, soybeans, pork, and dairy.
Apr 2, 2025
Liberation Day: 34% reciprocal tariff on China announced (on top of existing duties).
Apr 8โ9, 2025
Rapid escalation: US raises China tariffs to 125%, then 145%. China matches at 125% on US goods.
May 12, 2025
Geneva Agreement: Both sides suspend 24pp of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, retaining 10% on covered goods.
Aug 11, 2025
Geneva truce extended through November. US tariffs on China stabilize at ~30% (reciprocal portion).
Nov 2025
Stockholm meeting: Further extension agreed. Fentanyl cooperation framework announced.
Feb 20, 2026
SCOTUS strikes down IEEPA tariffs. Reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs voided. Section 301 tariffs remain.
Mar 2026
Section 122 replaces IEEPA: 10% baseline applies to Chinese goods alongside existing Section 301 duties.
Jun 2026
USTR proposes new Section 301 tariffs of 12.5% on China citing forced labor enforcement failures.
Jul 24, 2026
Section 122 baseline expires. Section 301 forced labor tariff (10-12.5%) takes effect, covering $954B in goods including Chinese exports.
Sep 2, 2026
Section 232 drone tariffs take effect: 100% on larger Chinese drones (DJI), 25% on smaller consumer models.
Sep 16, 2026
US and China discuss tariff concessions on energy and agricultural products ahead of leaders' summit.
Sep 21, 2026
Trump-Xi summit: trade stability discussions. US-China goods trade down 30% from 2024 levels.
US-China Trade by the Numbers
Bilateral trade data tells part of the story. The deficit has fallen, but so has total trade volume โ both exports and imports declined.
Year
US Exports to China
US Imports from China
Bilateral Deficit
2017
$130B
$506B
-$376B
2018
$120B
$540B
-$420B
2019
$107B
$452B
-$345B
2020
$125B
$435B
-$310B
2021
$151B
$506B
-$355B
2022
$154B
$537B
-$383B
2023
$148B
$427B
-$279B
2024
$143B
$401B
-$258B
2025
$118B
$312B
-$194B
2026*
$85B
$218B
-$133B
* 2025 figures are annualized estimates based on JanโOct data. Source: US Census Bureau.
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Trade diversion in action:As US imports from China fell, imports from Vietnam rose 38%, from Mexico 15%, and from India 22% between 2018 and 2025. Analysis by the Peterson Institute found that roughly 30-40% of this represents Chinese goods being routed through third countries with minimal processing โ sometimes called "tariff engineering."
How China Has Fought Back
China's retaliation has gone beyond tariffs into strategic economic tools:
๐พ Agricultural tariffs: 10โ125% on US soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, and dairy โ targeting politically sensitive farm states
โ๏ธ Rare earth export controls: Restrictions on gallium, germanium, antimony, and other minerals critical to US defense and tech industries
๐ญ Entity blacklists: US defense contractors and tech firms barred from Chinese markets
๐ฐ Currency management: Allowing the yuan to weaken, partially offsetting tariff costs for Chinese exporters
๐ค Alternative trade partnerships: Accelerating RCEP implementation and bilateral deals with EU, ASEAN, and Middle Eastern countries
How the Supreme Court Reshaped the Trade War
The February 2026 SCOTUS ruling in Learning Resources v. Trump voided IEEPA-based tariffs โ including the fentanyl tariffs specifically targeting China and the reciprocal tariffs that peaked at 145%. But it left Section 301 tariffs untouched, since those were imposed under different legal authority with proper administrative proceedings.
The practical effect: China's tariff rates dropped from an effective ~55-70% (combining IEEPA + Section 301) to roughly 17.5-35% (Section 122 + Section 301). Still historically high, but a meaningful reduction from the peak.
The administration has signaled it intends to maintain pressure through new Section 301 investigations. USTR proposed 12.5% forced-labor tariffs in June 2026 covering Chinese goods โ hearings are scheduled for July 2026.
What Comes Next
๐ July 7โ11, 2026: USTR hearings on proposed Section 301 forced-labor tariffs
๐ July 24, 2026: Section 122 baseline tariff expires without Congressional action
โ๏ธ Pending: Appeals court review of Section 122 legality
๐๏ธ Congress: Debate over new tariff authority legislation
What is the total tariff rate on Chinese goods in 2026?
It depends on the product. Most Chinese goods face at minimum 17.5% (10% Section 122 + 7.5% Section 301 List 4A). Many face 35% (10% + 25% Section 301 Lists 1-3). Targeted sectors face much more: Chinese EVs face over 100% in combined duties, solar cells face 60%+, and steel articles can face 85%+ when Section 232 duties are added.
Did the Geneva Agreement reduce tariffs on China?
Temporarily, yes. The May 2025 Geneva Agreement suspended 24 percentage points of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. But after the SCOTUS ruling voided IEEPA tariffs entirely in February 2026, the Geneva framework became moot. Current China tariffs rest on Section 301 and Section 122 authority instead.
Has the trade war reduced the US-China trade deficit?
Yes, significantly. The bilateral trade deficit fell from $420B in 2018 to an estimated $194B in 2025 โ a 54% decline. However, economists note that much of the 'reduction' reflects trade diversion: Chinese goods now enter the US through third countries like Vietnam, Mexico, and Malaysia, so the real deficit reduction is smaller than the bilateral numbers suggest.
How has China retaliated?
China has imposed tariffs of 10-125% on US agricultural products (soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, dairy), restricted exports of rare earth minerals and critical materials, blacklisted US defense companies, and imposed export controls on gallium, germanium, and other tech-critical minerals.
What happens next in the US-China trade relationship?
The September 2026 Trump-Xi summit focused on trade stability, with both sides discussing tariff concessions on energy and agricultural products. China's effective tariff rate has declined to 22.8% (Penn Wharton, September 2026), down from peaks earlier in the year. However, new targeted tariffs on drones (100%) and forced labor (10-12.5%) offset some reductions. Total US-China goods trade has declined nearly 30% from pre-trade-war levels, with significant diversion through Vietnam, India, and Mexico.